Of Kariba ‘shortcomings’ and options for Zimbabwe
Hosia Mviringi
Built between 1955 and 1959 during the colonial federation, Kariba Dam is the largest inland man made dam in the world, with a holding capacity of 181 Billion Cubic meters of water.
Upon completion of civil works on the gigantic double concrete dam wall, more than 55000 Tonga families were displaced, split between the Northern and the Southern sides of the Zambezi River. Indeed a massive human sacrifice, all in the hope for a better life.
Kariba Dam has the capacity to supply water to such towns as far inland as Chinhoyi, Karoi, and even Chegutu, as well as replenishing smaller dams inland while creating a green belt along the way through irrigation projects.
Of course, for the greater part of its life cycle, Kariba Dam has not disappointed, providing livelihoods for nearby families through fisheries and tourism, while those in far places enjoyed the benefits of electricity generated from the giant turbines under the dam wall.
The dam produces a combined 1600MW of electricity split between Zimbabwe and Zambia and for a good reason, for many years, Kariba South Power Station has become Zimbabwe’s most reliable generation plant due to it’s consistency of flow and low maintenance cost.
Kariba South has an installed capacity of 1050MW, which is more than half Zimbabwe’s peak power demand!
Fast forward to November 28, 2022, the day that a dark cloud hovered over Zimbabwe giving dominion to the angel of darkness.The Zambezi River Authority, which to its credit represents a smooth and efficient cross-border agency that jointly runs and manages the Zambezi River waters, including Kariba Dam, instructed the Zimbabwe Power Company to halt generation at Kariba South.
To show how important Kariba Dam is to Zimbabwe in the energy matrix, on December 1, 2022, exactly two days after shutting down generators at Kariba South station, Zimbabwe produced a paltry 564MW which continues to fluctuate to all-time lows of 501MW against a peak demand of 2100MW, representing a meagre 25 per cent of peak demand!
All things being equal, provided the region receives sufficient rains this season, Zimbabwe can only hope to begin drawing some water for power generation at Kariba South between May-July next 2023, exactly seven months from now, a dangerous projection based on reality!
Seven months in the dark is way too long to contemplate for a growing economy, worse still for a nation yearning for a rapid economic growth towards an Upper Middle Income Economy by 2030.
As such the purpose of this background information is to highlight the gravity of the crisis that the country face while attempting to stimulate thought and debate on what can be done to bridge the gap in the short term while long term solutions are found to address the power deficit.
Government of Zimbabwe, using a US$1 billion loan from the China Exim Bank, embarked on an ambitious expansion project at Hwange Thermal Power Station to add 600MW of electricity to the grid. With this investment, two generators, one of which is expected to feed 300MW at the end of December 2022, while another 300MW expected early 2023, hopes were high that the country could beenergy self sufficient, at least by early 2023, with enough capacity to power a growing industrial base and increasing households.
And then Kariba happened!
In effect, Zimbabwe has enough installed power generating capacity to see the country out of the current power shortages, with potential to export a little above 200MW daily, which is equivalent to what Munyati Power Station can produce on a good day.
But what can Zimbabwe do in the short to medium term to bridge the power supply gap?
They say adversity is the mother of all inventions. Without it mankind tends to relax and forget to innovate. As such Zimbabwe should emerge out of this crisis with better perspectives and innovations to avert similar problems in the future.
The lowest hanging fruit for Zimbabwe at present is the expedition of delivery of Hwange 7 & 8, which could only be a few months away, at least less than six months. Of course the additional 600MW won’t be enough to cater for the yawning power demand gap, but it will go a long way in mitigation.
Another short-medium term way out of the current predicament would be to sweat the entire available power generating infrastructure as well as expedited installation of mini hydro-power generating plants at all major inland dams such as Tokwe-Mukosi to produce electricity for the country by harnessing available water resources.
Focused government intervention by government should target replacement of generators at Munyati, Harare, Bulawayo and Hwange Units 1-6 whose repairs have taken too long to complete, as available evidence point to the unserviceability of the aged equipment which have outlived its lifespan.
The failure of Kariba has sounded a rude awakening and reminder to the authorities as it has revealed a yawning gulf between power supply and demand.
The power challenges have drawn the attention of all stakeholders to one of the most critical economic sectors which is a major driver of growth.
As such it will not be far-fetched to ask government to declare the current power shortage a state of national disaster to allow a focused response.
Government needs to immediately review the cost of power in the country which remains the lowest in the region. Energy price regulation by government has served as a perennial repellent to fresh investments into the energy sector.
However the current Kariba crisis has proved, even to businesses which have always advocated for cheaper energy, that the cost of not having power at all is way higher than market determined electricity tariffs.
Most heavy electricity users such as mining companies and heavy industries had all along been reluctant to invest in power generation because availability of power at sub-economic rates through the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority.
Thus this reality speaks to the urgent need for government to deregulate the energy sector to encourage Private Power Producers (PPPs) to quickly step in and set up generating plants.
At the current rate of load-shedding, every well meaning Zimbabwean energy consumer would agree that it is much better to allow ZESA to introduce US Dollar tariffs for everyone including domestic power consumers. This will be a short-medium term intervention to enable the power utility to import power to bridge the destabilising power deficit. From a security point of view, up to eleven hours of darkness can be a real threat to national security that cannot be ignored.
The power and motivation for Private Power Producers to investing in the energy sector is the availability of sound off-take agreements with the national power utility, ZESA at market-determined tariffs, without which no meaningful investments can ever come into the country.
This is a critical consideration for investors considering the astronomical cost of project finance as a direct result of Zimbabwe’s heightened business risk due to economic sanctions. As such government will be encouraged to scale down interference in the pricing of energy products.
Government should further extend incentives to households and private entities who want to invest in Solar Energy. For example government could offer tax rebates for a fixed period of time to allow a company or household to recoup their cost of investment in solar energy. This way the country will be able to wean a number of industrial and mining entities, as well as households from the grid. Zimbabwe is blessed with abundant sunshine which is going to waste daily, representing unquantifiable power generation potential.
Critical to the whole matrix is the role that government can and should play in encouraging local production of photovoltaic cells (solar panels) while ensuring that the country has a vibrant battery manufacturing industry to add value to the abundant lithium deposits. In the long term, the country should ban the export of raw lithium by whomsoever as a way of serving national interest first. This will be in recognition of the country’s efforts to honour its international obligation to reduce its net carbon footprint.
In any case, it wouldn’t be a bad thing for Zimbabwe to become a net exporter of Lithium Ion batteries to the world when everyone is gearing up for the new generation of environmental friendly electric vehicles. Zimbabwe will earn invaluable foreign currency while creating thousands of new quality jobs locally.
The current debacle with Kariba is a clear sign that the earmarked Batoka Gorge Power Station may not be the immediate panacea that Zimbabwe needs as it will most likely suffer a similar fate to Kariba as they both draw water from the upper Zambezi River.
This writer is particularly gratified that recently President expressed his government’s openness and readiness to harness the country’s abundant Uranium deposits which can be a real game changer to the power generation matrix.
In the long term the country needs to seriously move towards embracing nuclear energy as way to hedge the country against the effects of droughts and depleting coal reserves.
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